The Sports Media Ragnarök is coming in 2029-30

Nothing exists in a vacuum, yet we always treat sports as such. It’s probably because the games themselves exist in momentary spaces in time and offer a reprieve from the chaos of every day life, so it’s easy to slip into those terms when talking about the sports or leagues at large.

Earlier this week, two leagues fundamentally reworked television deals to large ridicule. Major League Baseball announced a new National TV contract to run from 2026-29 with Netflix, NBC, and ESPN. It’s being called a “billion dollar blunder” by Rob Manfred. Major League Soccer announced a massive change to the league operating calendar, to great acclaim, while also announcing that their media deal with Apple will be reworked to expire after the 2028-29 season, three and a half years earlier than originally contracted. Most people think that this is an easy “both sides walk away” moment for a deal that has seen MLS viewership crater and Apple never quite recoup its investment.

Both stories, in a vacuum, can be viewed through these less than positive perspectives. However, in reality, this is the signal that we have entered a sort of sports media fimbulwinter before the ragnarök that is now 2029-301.

Both deals ending around the same time is no accident. But why? You see, in 2030 there is a confluence of events that will more than likely redefine what sports viewership looks like for the average consumer and determine how stretched the sports media rights bubble can stretch. And of course, football is involved.

In 2030, the two largest football entities in the USA both face potential billion dollar decisions that are all but guaranteed to be enacted. First, and probably the most importantly, the National Football League has an opt-out of their existing 11 billion dollar contract with CBS, Fox, NBC, and Amazon2. Oh and guess what: that’s the same time that Sunday Ticket’s back on the market after it’s seven year run with YouTube. The NFL, for the first time in a long time, will come into negotiations as the unquestioned leader in live programming with every single asset it owns up for grabs.

Also in 2030, college football is facing another existential change that could spell huge money for new contracts. The B1G Ten will come to the table as its seven year contract expires, which coincides with newly negotiated ACC Settlement that would minimize conference exit fees significantly. While the SEC’s deal with ESPN runs through 2034, any conference realignment opens the door for increased revenue, as the ACC enacted with ESPN when it brought in SMU, Cal, and Stanford. So, as many have speculated since the ACC settlement3, the B1G and SEC could pick apart the ACC sparking a final wave of realignment, creating a massive “super league” between the two conferences and new television contracts alongside the new league.