Syracuse football post week 1 schedule outlook
It's all fun and games until Week 1 is in the books
The Syracuse Orange routed their FCS foes of New Hampshire this past weekend, and while there is not a lot to take away from the game itself, the Orange learned a lot about the rest of their schedule thanks to a bit of a chaotic Week 1 for their specific group of ACC and remaining two non-conference opponents.
WEEK 2 SP+ RATINGSBiggest P4 risers (in terms of ratings): Syracuse, Miss St, Kansas, S CaroBiggest G6 risers: UMass!, Ga St, So Miss, MTSUBiggest P4 fallers: Clemson, Stanford, Cal, RutgersBiggest G6 fallers: Fresno, Marshall, FAU, Miami-OH
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[image or embed]— Bill Connelly (@espnbillc.bsky.social) September 8, 2026 at 11:59 AM
As usual, I'll be heavily referencing Bill C's SP+ metrics, that also saw Syracuse become one of the biggest winners of Week 1 in terms of over exceeding preseason expectations.
Games That Look Much More Winnable
Clemson (-26 SP+): Look, we have to start with the Tigers and Dabo's crisis. It might be a bit of an overreaction, but it sure appears as if all the offseason talk of coaching changes and toughness was just more Dabo preaching. The Orange will get Clemson after they've had to play Miami, Virginia, and Florida State, so we'll know for sure if Clemson is fixed or in the midst of a second straight season's existential crisis.
California (-17 SP+): The Golden Bears lost their Week 1 rivalry game with UCLA and did not play well on either side of the ball. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is electric, but is still a sophomore and does not look like an improved version of the freshman cowboy he was last year in a new install of an offense that was supposed to help him evolve at warp speed. Their defense was always a question mark, and it looks like the Orange will get plenty of chances to score on Saturday.
@North Carolina (-13 SP+): Even with the win over TCU in Ireland, the Tar Heels are in a world of hurt. Their front office is in turmoil and it appears that their defensive coordinator will remain indefinitely out. The new look offense did not look different at all from last season, against a defense that ranked 86th in SP+. By the time late October rolls through, UNC will either have figured something out or be in a deep spiral that could lead to an overhaul.
Games That Look Much More Challenging
@Pittsburgh (+10 SP+): Miami of Ohio might not sound intimidating, but they did spend the most NIL money in the MAC conference this offseason. While money doesn't guarantee victories, it meant that they at least sent out a competent and far more talented team against Pitt than anyone expected, and the Panthers bludgeoned them to the tune of 59 points. A Pitt team that was picked over on defense needs to have a good offense in order to be a dark horse ACC team, and it sure looks like they have one. They have UCF this week before the Thursday night showdown next week with the Orange and we'll learn quickly if this was a flash in the pan or a legitimate problem to be solved.
@Virginia (-7 SP+): While they fell in SP+ due to some clear issues in taking care of a really disappointing NC State team, Tony Elliot's team did something that they have not done in his era at the helm: show consistency year over year. It appears if Elliot has successfully instill the tough, run based offense at UVA with a top 20 defensive offering that will make the Cavs a tough out for any good team and an absolute nightmare for teams not ready to match physicality in the trenches. This looks like a horrible matchup for Syracuse at the moment, but there's plenty of time before the Orange have to travel for this one.
Larger Takeaway
Every season, we start the year talking about how difficult Syracuse's schedule looks. Every season, which games look challenging and which look easy have some in season variance, but mostly, the preseason read holds true. There are a handful of seasons when that is just wrong, and Syracuse can capitalize. After week one, only Notre Dame and UConn moved up in SP+, with every other team on Syracuse's schedule falling.
Not all teams fell to the point that Syracuse is now looking at mathematical probability of going to a bowl game, but the schedule is technically less daunting than it was a week ago. The Orange can only play the teams in front of them. Right now? Those teams are mostly struggling relative to how we thought they'd look preseason.
